Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Duchene 52.9% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Cirelli leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 66.3%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 54.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 54.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Cirelli
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Cirelli
Duchene
Last 10: Cirelli 5-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
5
2
Cirelli
Duchene
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Cirelli
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (372)
55.6% (248)
-5.9%
Power Play
59.5% (37)
45.3% (53)
+14.2%
On power play, Cirelli has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Cirelli is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (295).
Cirelli shoots left. Duchene is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (205).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Duchene
Home
47.5% (217)
54.7% (150)
Away
50.6% (245)
53.0% (151)
By Period
Cirelli
Duchene
P1
55.0%
51.1%
P2
44.8%
57.8%
P3
46.2%
52.4%
OT
80.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.1%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2021 | 2 | 04:13 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 1 | 17:24 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 2 | 18:35 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 2 | 03:19 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 2 | 02:54 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 1 | 10:57 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 1, 2021 | 2 | 13:55 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 3 | 19:14 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 3 | 11:26 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 04:01 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 1 | 17:41 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |