Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 50.1% vs Duchene 52.1% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 64.1%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 55.2%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 51.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Cirelli
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Cirelli
Duchene
Last 7: Cirelli 4-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Cirelli
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
1
Cirelli
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (1,052)
53.0% (723)
-3.1%
Power Play
54.9% (82)
49.5% (101)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (158)
43.8% (16)
+4.9%
On power play, Cirelli has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Cirelli is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (830).
Cirelli shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Duchene
Home
46.7% (649)
54.9% (408)
Away
53.5% (643)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Cirelli
Duchene
P1
50.1%
52.5%
P2
51.1%
51.7%
P3
48.5%
53.6%
OT
64.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.7%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
50.1%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:58 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 17:29 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 18:05 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 00:17 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 12:14 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |