Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Cirelli wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 46.9% vs Duchene 52.8% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 58.9%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 88.0%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 63.0%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Cirelli
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Cirelli
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Cirelli
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Cirelli
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (737)
46.9% (162)
-0.5%
Power Play
57.6% (99)
73.2% (56)
-15.6%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (112)
100.0% (2)
-62.5%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +62.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Cirelli is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Cirelli shoots left. Duchene is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (115).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Duchene
Home
46.7% (478)
58.4% (125)
Away
46.4% (470)
48.4% (95)
By Period
Cirelli
Duchene
P1
46.6%
56.9%
P2
48.6%
52.5%
P3
44.3%
51.9%
OT
44.4%
80.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
46.5%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 03:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 2 | 07:05 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |