Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 50.1% vs Frost 51.1% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 60.3%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 82.3%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 64.4%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Cirelli
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Cirelli
Frost
Last 7: Cirelli 2-5 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
3
Cirelli
Frost
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Cirelli
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (1,052)
50.3% (825)
-0.4%
Power Play
54.9% (82)
54.9% (204)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (158)
50.0% (4)
-1.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Cirelli is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (830).
Cirelli shoots left. Frost is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Frost
Home
46.7% (649)
50.7% (489)
Away
53.5% (643)
51.7% (544)
By Period
Cirelli
Frost
P1
50.1%
53.6%
P2
51.1%
47.8%
P3
48.5%
52.0%
OT
64.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
49.7%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
50.1%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 17:32 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 06:53 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 12:41 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 19:15 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 12:48 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |