Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.1% vs Frost 55.7% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 84.5%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 61.9%
Neutral zone
Frost 58.7%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Cirelli
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Cirelli
Frost
Last 9: Cirelli 5-4 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
2
Cirelli
Frost
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
4
1
Cirelli
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (613)
54.9% (701)
-4.5%
Power Play
69.9% (83)
60.8% (166)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (208)
100.0% (5)
-63.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +63.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Cirelli is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Cirelli shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Frost
Home
54.2% (395)
56.0% (443)
Away
45.0% (509)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Cirelli
Frost
P1
50.8%
58.9%
P2
50.0%
55.3%
P3
46.6%
54.0%
OT
33.3%
70.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.0%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 02:22 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 10:13 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 14:13 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 08:25 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 18:56 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 16:44 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 12:05 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |