Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings). Cirelli wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 46.9% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Cirelli leads 14-11 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 59.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 76.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 78.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 69.0%
31.0%
69.0%
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
11
(25 meetings)
14
11
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Last 10: Cirelli 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
8
4
Cirelli
O'Reilly
12 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Cirelli
O'Reilly
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Cirelli
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (737)
56.6% (1,064)
-10.2%
Power Play
57.6% (99)
60.4% (260)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (112)
54.0% (261)
-16.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cirelli is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Cirelli shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Home
46.7% (478)
54.9% (801)
Away
46.4% (470)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Cirelli
O'Reilly
P1
46.6%
58.0%
P2
48.6%
56.7%
P3
44.3%
55.4%
OT
44.4%
64.7%
Final 5 min
50.6%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
46.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 04:35 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 04:26 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 18:46 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 18:32 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 13:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 14:38 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 01:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 30, 2021 | OT | 04:47 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 30, 2021 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 08:26 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 17:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 17:00 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 14:14 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 09:09 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 03:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 1 | 19:50 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 1 | 19:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |