Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 65.8%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 70.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.1%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Last 10: Cirelli 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
3
2
Cirelli
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cirelli
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Cirelli
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (709)
55.0% (1,084)
-4.1%
Power Play
43.4% (76)
56.8% (303)
-13.4%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (150)
40.3% (149)
+3.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cirelli is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Cirelli shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Home
50.6% (494)
54.8% (759)
Away
47.6% (441)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Cirelli
O'Reilly
P1
52.3%
55.3%
P2
45.4%
51.9%
P3
49.5%
54.2%
OT
62.5%
64.7%
Final 5 min
47.5%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 07:24 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 04:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3 | 18:27 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3 | 07:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3 | 04:54 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3 | 02:42 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3 | 02:25 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 2 | 15:45 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 2 | 11:04 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 1 | 11:35 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 1 | 09:48 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |