Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 51.2% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 73.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 66.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 67.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 69.1%
30.9%
69.1%
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Last 9: Cirelli 6-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
1
Cirelli
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
1
Cirelli
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
1
Cirelli
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (585)
56.1% (690)
-4.0%
Power Play
56.8% (74)
64.6% (96)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (172)
45.9% (109)
+0.6%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cirelli is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Cirelli shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Home
52.4% (462)
58.3% (408)
Away
50.1% (369)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Cirelli
O'Reilly
P1
50.7%
57.7%
P2
49.6%
54.8%
P3
53.3%
55.2%
OT
61.5%
45.5%
Final 5 min
49.5%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
51.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 16:16 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 18:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 16:01 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 14:22 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 11:09 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 10:09 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 06:44 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 00:53 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |