Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 50.1% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 56.5%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 75.6%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 59.9%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Last 9: Cirelli 4-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
3
1
Cirelli
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Cirelli
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (1,052)
56.2% (983)
-6.3%
Power Play
54.9% (82)
55.5% (254)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (158)
52.0% (102)
-3.3%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cirelli is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (830).
Cirelli shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Home
46.7% (649)
56.2% (697)
Away
53.5% (643)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Cirelli
O'Reilly
P1
50.1%
54.5%
P2
51.1%
55.5%
P3
48.5%
57.1%
OT
64.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.7%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
50.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 03:29 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 03:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 17:57 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 12:04 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 09:28 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 04:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |