Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.1% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 52.3%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 64.9%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 59.3%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 59.4%
59.4%
40.6%
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Last 9: Cirelli 4-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
1
Cirelli
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cirelli
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Cirelli
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (613)
55.4% (826)
-5.0%
Power Play
69.9% (83)
57.9% (221)
+12.0%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (208)
50.4% (129)
-13.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cirelli is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Cirelli shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Home
54.2% (395)
55.8% (579)
Away
45.0% (509)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Cirelli
O'Reilly
P1
50.8%
57.7%
P2
50.0%
54.8%
P3
46.6%
54.3%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 17:54 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 16:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 15:47 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 19:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 01:14 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:44 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:30 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |