Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Lundell on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Lundell wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 52.7% vs Larkin 54.2% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Lundell leads 12-6 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 56.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 58.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 52.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Lundell
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
6
(18 meetings)
12
6
Lundell
Larkin
Last 10: Lundell 7-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
5
1
Lundell
Larkin
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
5
4
Lundell
Larkin
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lundell
2
1
Lundell
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (804)
52.6% (1,117)
+2.0%
Power Play
50.6% (81)
60.7% (305)
-10.1%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (138)
55.9% (177)
-11.0%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Lundell is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (701).
Lundell shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Home / Away
Lundell
Larkin
Home
51.2% (527)
54.7% (783)
Away
54.8% (496)
54.3% (816)
By Period
Lundell
Larkin
P1
53.7%
55.9%
P2
51.7%
56.1%
P3
54.1%
51.1%
OT
20.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.2%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
54.0%▼
57.0%
53.0%
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 19:58 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:14 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 17:41 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 17:22 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 10:27 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 02:50 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 11:58 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 08:55 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 16:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 12:14 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:51 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 10:57 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 05:51 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 11:58 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:31 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |