Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Lundell on offensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 50.7% vs Larkin 52.7% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Lundell leads 21-11 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 79.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 71.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 75.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 75.5%
24.5%
75.5%
Lundell
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
11
(32 meetings)
21
11
Lundell
Larkin
Last 10: Lundell 7-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
11
3
Lundell
Larkin
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
7
6
Lundell
Larkin
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lundell
3
2
Lundell
Larkin
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,486)
51.7% (9,019)
-0.6%
Power Play
55.6% (358)
58.5% (2,125)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (504)
50.2% (1,122)
-5.4%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Lundell is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,891).
Lundell shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Home / Away
Lundell
Larkin
Home
50.7% (2,304)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
50.9% (2,044)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
Lundell
Larkin
P1
52.0%
52.7%
P2
51.4%
53.1%
P3
49.0%
52.1%
OT
48.1%
58.4%
Final 5 min
52.0%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
46.0%▼
49.0%
50.8%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 15:06 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 03:30 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 17:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 15:05 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 14:46 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 09:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 01:25 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 08:13 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 19:58 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:14 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 17:41 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 17:22 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 10:27 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 02:50 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 11:58 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 08:55 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 16:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |