Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Lundell on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Lundell wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 51.6% vs Larkin 52.7% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 65.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 59.1%
Neutral zone
Larkin 70.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 63.6%
36.4%
63.6%
Lundell
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Lundell
Larkin
Last 9: Lundell 6-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
4
1
Lundell
Larkin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
2
1
Lundell
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Lundell
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (786)
51.5% (1,025)
+1.2%
Power Play
52.6% (152)
60.0% (285)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
47.3% (182)
49.5% (182)
-2.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Lundell is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (783).
Lundell shoots left. Larkin is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (961).
Home / Away
Lundell
Larkin
Home
51.0% (574)
52.7% (767)
Away
52.6% (546)
53.1% (725)
By Period
Lundell
Larkin
P1
52.9%
52.0%
P2
55.8%
53.0%
P3
47.1%
52.9%
OT
46.2%
63.6%
Final 5 min
50.8%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.8%
Larkin
64.0%▲
55.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 15:06 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 03:30 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 17:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 15:05 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 14:46 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 09:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 01:25 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 08:13 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |