Auston Matthews vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (59.7% vs 59.7%). Look for Pageau on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Pageau 58.8% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 62.2%
Defensive zone
Pageau 67.1%
Neutral zone
Pageau 56.0%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Matthews
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Matthews
Pageau
Last 5: Matthews 2-3 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Pageau
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
1
Matthews
Pageau
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
2
Matthews
Pageau
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
59.1% (687)
+0.7%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
69.4% (36)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
60.1% (213)
-3.8%
On power play, Pageau has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Pageau is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Matthews
Pageau
Home
60.0% (520)
57.8% (377)
Away
59.3% (452)
61.0% (559)
By Period
Matthews
Pageau
P1
60.2%
54.1%
P2
58.2%
62.1%
P3
60.4%
61.8%
OT
70.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:42 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:33 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 19:50 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |