Auston Matthews vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.9% vs 54.8%). Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (85% H2H, 34 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Pageau 54.8% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 52-51 in 103 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 76.2%
Defensive zone
Pageau 62.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 52.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Matthews
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
51
-
52
(103 meetings)
51
52
Matthews
Pageau
Last 10: Matthews 4-6 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
30
8
Matthews
Pageau
38 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
5
29
Matthews
Pageau
34 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
16
15
Matthews
Pageau
31 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
55.7% (9,486)
-1.7%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
57.0% (1,002)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
49.6% (2,069)
+0.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Matthews is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,705).
Matthews shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,837).
Home / Away
Matthews
Pageau
Home
56.3% (5,065)
56.3% (6,214)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
53.4% (6,343)
By Period
Matthews
Pageau
P1
55.5%
54.6%
P2
53.3%
56.3%
P3
52.8%
53.5%
OT
56.6%
54.4%
Final 5 min
54.1%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:42 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:33 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 19:50 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 3 | 13:57 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 2 | 05:06 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 1 | 17:40 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 1 | 13:35 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 11, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 09:40 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 14:19 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 10:55 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 07:11 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 02:40 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 19:03 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 02:57 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |