Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Norris 51.9% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Norris leads 14-13 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Norris 52.3%
Defensive zone
Norris 51.9%
Neutral zone
Norris 52.8%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Matthews
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
14
(27 meetings)
13
14
Matthews
Norris
Last 10: Matthews 7-3 Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
1
2
Matthews
Norris
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
0
Matthews
Norris
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
7
12
Matthews
Norris
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
52.2% (542)
+1.2%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
54.4% (57)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
46.7% (30)
-4.8%
On power play, Matthews has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Norris is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (423).
Home / Away
Matthews
Norris
Home
56.5% (703)
50.7% (351)
Away
50.0% (616)
54.0% (278)
By Period
Matthews
Norris
P1
52.1%
55.6%
P2
54.0%
49.3%
P3
54.0%
52.1%
OT
57.7%
42.9%
Final 5 min
54.6%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 14:44 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 14:36 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 11:27 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 09:49 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 09:43 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 16:49 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 11:25 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 07:55 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 09:27 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 02:56 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 00:17 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 00:10 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 10:22 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 07:12 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 03:35 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 05:58 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |