Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Norris on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 47 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Norris 52.1% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Norris leads 48-42 in 90 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 53.2%
Defensive zone
Norris 62.4%
Neutral zone
Norris 58.6%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Matthews
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
42
-
48
(90 meetings)
42
48
Matthews
Norris
Last 10: Matthews 7-3 Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
14
8
Matthews
Norris
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
9
12
Matthews
Norris
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
19
28
Matthews
Norris
47 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
52.5% (3,057)
+1.5%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
53.7% (404)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
45.4% (240)
+4.4%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Norris is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,392).
Home / Away
Matthews
Norris
Home
56.3% (5,065)
53.1% (1,856)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
51.2% (1,845)
By Period
Matthews
Norris
P1
55.5%
55.6%
P2
53.3%
51.4%
P3
52.8%
50.1%
OT
56.6%
40.5%
Final 5 min
54.1%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 14:44 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 14:36 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 11:27 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 09:49 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 09:43 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 16:49 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 11:25 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 07:55 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 09:27 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 02:56 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 00:17 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 00:10 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 10:22 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 07:12 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 03:35 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 05:58 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |