Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Eller 49.5% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 70.2%
Defensive zone
Eller 82.4%
Neutral zone
Eller 58.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Matthews
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Matthews
Eller
Last 9: Matthews 4-5 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
Eller
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Eller
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
0
4
Matthews
Eller
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
51.1% (786)
+5.2%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
45.0% (80)
+12.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
43.6% (165)
+6.4%
On power play, Matthews has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (755).
Matthews shoots left. Eller is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (677).
Home / Away
Matthews
Eller
Home
60.7% (572)
51.2% (510)
Away
52.4% (657)
47.8% (521)
By Period
Matthews
Eller
P1
60.3%
50.7%
P2
55.6%
49.0%
P3
53.3%
48.3%
OT
45.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
45.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 12:36 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 12:48 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 09:56 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 06:01 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 09:11 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 18:42 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 02:33 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 12:29 | Neutral | Lars Eller |