Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Eller 51.9% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 74.0%
Defensive zone
Eller 72.7%
Neutral zone
Eller 74.3%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 73.5%
26.5%
73.5%
Matthews
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Matthews
Eller
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
1
Matthews
Eller
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
0
1
Matthews
Eller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
52.8% (650)
+5.5%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
69.2% (13)
-13.5%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
45.5% (88)
+5.2%
On power play, Eller has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Eller is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Matthews
Eller
Home
59.1% (528)
52.6% (340)
Away
55.1% (695)
51.8% (411)
By Period
Matthews
Eller
P1
56.2%
52.4%
P2
58.1%
54.1%
P3
56.4%
50.0%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 05:18 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |