Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 24 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Eller 50.5% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 33-28 in 61 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 81.4%
Defensive zone
Eller 52.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 62.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 64.2%
64.2%
35.8%
Matthews
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
28
(61 meetings)
33
28
Matthews
Eller
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
21
3
Matthews
Eller
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
9
14
Matthews
Eller
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
3
11
Matthews
Eller
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
51.1% (10,296)
+2.9%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
52.8% (621)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
46.7% (1,751)
+3.1%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,123).
Home / Away
Matthews
Eller
Home
56.3% (5,065)
51.4% (6,118)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
49.7% (6,578)
By Period
Matthews
Eller
P1
55.5%
51.2%
P2
53.3%
50.1%
P3
52.8%
50.2%
OT
56.6%
56.7%
Final 5 min
54.1%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 05:18 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Apr 8, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 2 | 09:56 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 1 | 15:33 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 3 | 14:55 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 3 | 09:34 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 2 | 19:46 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 10:24 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 02:34 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 19:56 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 14:06 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 09:06 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 02:51 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 06:29 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 18:25 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 18:55 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 24, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 12:36 | Neutral | Lars Eller |