Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.4% vs 52.6%). Look for Suzuki on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). Matthews wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Suzuki shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Suzuki 52.4% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Suzuki leads 17-8 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Suzuki 61.5%
Defensive zone
Suzuki 58.1%
Neutral zone
Suzuki 62.2%
Result
Nick Suzuki favored at 60.3%
39.7%
60.3%
Matthews
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
17
(25 meetings)
8
17
Matthews
Suzuki
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Suzuki
1
3
Matthews
Suzuki
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Suzuki
3
8
Matthews
Suzuki
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Suzuki
4
6
Matthews
Suzuki
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
51.3% (1,096)
+2.1%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
59.9% (157)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
56.9% (58)
-15.0%
On penalty kill, Suzuki has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. Matthews is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (478).
Matthews shoots left. Suzuki is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (961).
Home / Away
Matthews
Suzuki
Home
56.5% (703)
54.2% (638)
Away
50.0% (616)
51.0% (673)
By Period
Matthews
Suzuki
P1
52.1%
51.5%
P2
54.0%
53.3%
P3
54.0%
52.4%
OT
57.7%
58.3%
Final 5 min
54.6%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:19 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 07:07 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 14:44 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 10:01 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 02:21 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 12:45 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 09:04 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 18:48 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 11:42 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 08:26 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 10:21 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:27 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 05:50 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:07 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 06:46 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 2 | 18:38 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 2 | 08:07 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |