Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 11 meetings). Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Suzuki shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Suzuki 50.3% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 21-12 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 68.9%
Defensive zone
Matthews 97.2%
Neutral zone
Matthews 87.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 83.3%
83.3%
16.7%
Matthews
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
12
(33 meetings)
21
12
Matthews
Suzuki
Last 10: Matthews 9-1 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
7
4
Matthews
Suzuki
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
2
Matthews
Suzuki
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
9
6
Matthews
Suzuki
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
51.3% (904)
+8.5%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
49.8% (265)
+15.1%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
36.8% (57)
+19.5%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Suzuki is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (921).
Home / Away
Matthews
Suzuki
Home
60.0% (520)
50.6% (603)
Away
59.3% (452)
50.1% (623)
By Period
Matthews
Suzuki
P1
60.2%
52.3%
P2
58.2%
47.5%
P3
60.4%
51.1%
OT
70.0%
48.6%
Final 5 min
57.6%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:26 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 11:21 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 11:17 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:23 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:00 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 10:46 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 07:21 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 19:35 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:36 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 11:07 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 06:09 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 6, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 10:28 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 03:28 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 03:07 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |