Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Suzuki on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 16 meetings). Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Suzuki shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Suzuki 51.5% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Suzuki leads 17-13 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Suzuki 88.6%
Defensive zone
Suzuki 54.7%
Neutral zone
Suzuki 67.8%
Result
Nick Suzuki favored at 76.3%
23.7%
76.3%
Matthews
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
17
(30 meetings)
13
17
Matthews
Suzuki
Last 10: Matthews 4-6 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Suzuki
5
11
Matthews
Suzuki
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
2
Matthews
Suzuki
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Matthews
Suzuki
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
52.4% (981)
+5.9%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
50.7% (304)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
36.4% (33)
+14.3%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Suzuki is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (976).
Home / Away
Matthews
Suzuki
Home
59.1% (528)
53.2% (645)
Away
55.1% (695)
50.1% (673)
By Period
Matthews
Suzuki
P1
56.2%
48.9%
P2
58.1%
51.5%
P3
56.4%
54.9%
OT
50.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 17:46 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 15:51 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 09:53 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 06:11 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:24 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 09:47 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:14 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 14:22 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 06:53 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 03:08 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 13:41 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 10:42 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 07:54 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 04:14 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 07:41 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 06:32 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |