Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 46 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — Suzuki shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Suzuki 49.3% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 90-71 in 161 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 76.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 81.6%
Neutral zone
Matthews 76.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 77.9%
77.9%
22.1%
Matthews
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
90
-
71
(161 meetings)
90
71
Matthews
Suzuki
Last 10: Matthews 9-1 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
35
31
Matthews
Suzuki
66 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
27
19
Matthews
Suzuki
46 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
28
21
Matthews
Suzuki
49 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
49.4% (6,327)
+4.6%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
50.7% (1,338)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
43.6% (456)
+6.2%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. Matthews is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,705).
Matthews shoots left. Suzuki is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,913).
Home / Away
Matthews
Suzuki
Home
56.3% (5,065)
51.0% (3,997)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
47.6% (4,124)
By Period
Matthews
Suzuki
P1
55.5%
48.8%
P2
53.3%
49.1%
P3
52.8%
50.2%
OT
56.6%
44.4%
Final 5 min
54.1%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:26 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 11:21 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 11:17 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:23 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:00 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 10:46 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 07:21 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 19:35 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:36 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 11:07 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 06:09 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 6, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 10:28 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 03:28 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 03:07 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |