Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (59.7% vs 59.1%). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hintz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Hintz 58.0% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hintz 67.8%
Defensive zone
Matthews 61.5%
Neutral zone
Hintz 52.3%
Result
Roope Hintz favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Matthews
Hintz
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Matthews
Hintz
Last 5: Matthews 2-3 Hintz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Hintz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hintz
0
1
Matthews
Hintz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Hintz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hintz
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
58.7% (530)
+1.1%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
59.4% (170)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
66.7% (27)
-10.4%
On penalty kill, Hintz has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hintz shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Hintz is 60.2% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hintz
Home
60.0% (520)
60.2% (354)
Away
59.3% (452)
58.2% (373)
By Period
Matthews
Hintz
P1
60.2%
58.4%
P2
58.2%
59.8%
P3
60.4%
58.2%
OT
70.0%
81.8%
Final 5 min
57.6%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Hintz
64.0%▲
61.0%
59.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 15:26 | Offensive | Roope Hintz |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 03:05 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 08:04 | Defensive | Roope Hintz |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 07:55 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 01:04 | Neutral | Roope Hintz |