Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.9% vs 53.9%). Look for Hintz on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hintz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Hintz 53.8% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Hintz leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Hintz 57.3%
Defensive zone
Matthews 51.6%
Neutral zone
Hintz 51.7%
Result
Roope Hintz favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Matthews
Hintz
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Matthews
Hintz
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Hintz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hintz
2
3
Matthews
Hintz
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hintz
2
3
Matthews
Hintz
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hintz
2
3
Matthews
Hintz
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hintz
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
53.8% (3,722)
+0.2%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
55.4% (567)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
52.9% (221)
-3.1%
On penalty kill, Hintz has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hintz shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Hintz is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hintz
Home
56.3% (5,065)
54.9% (2,317)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
52.9% (2,193)
By Period
Matthews
Hintz
P1
55.5%
55.5%
P2
53.3%
53.9%
P3
52.8%
52.7%
OT
56.6%
49.3%
Final 5 min
54.1%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Hintz
64.0%▲
61.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 15:26 | Offensive | Roope Hintz |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 03:05 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 08:04 | Defensive | Roope Hintz |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 07:55 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 01:04 | Neutral | Roope Hintz |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 3 | 14:47 | Offensive | Roope Hintz |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 2 | 17:31 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 | 15:21 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 | 06:23 | Defensive | Roope Hintz |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:49 | Neutral | Roope Hintz |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 14:45 | Neutral | Roope Hintz |
| Apr 7, 2022 | 1 | 00:16 | Offensive | Roope Hintz |
| Oct 9, 2018 | 2 | 16:33 | Defensive | Roope Hintz |