Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Colton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Colton 51.0% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 80.8%
Defensive zone
Matthews 60.0%
Neutral zone
Matthews 69.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 74.0%
74.0%
26.0%
Matthews
Colton
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Matthews
Colton
Last 8: Matthews 5-3 Colton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
Colton
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Colton
0
1
Matthews
Colton
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Colton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Colton
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
51.6% (1,800)
+2.4%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
48.8% (162)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
34.5% (29)
+15.3%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Colton shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Colton is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,295).
Home / Away
Matthews
Colton
Home
56.3% (5,065)
51.9% (1,013)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
50.2% (978)
By Period
Matthews
Colton
P1
55.5%
53.5%
P2
53.3%
52.6%
P3
52.8%
47.9%
OT
56.6%
25.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Colton
44.0%▲
42.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 06:03 | Offensive | Ross Colton |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 15:27 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 11:13 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 08:38 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 08:25 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 09:40 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 09:31 | Neutral | Ross Colton |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 06:12 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |