Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Matthews wins 57.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs O'Reilly 59.5% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 64.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 77.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 62.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 73.5%
26.5%
73.5%
Matthews
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Matthews
O'Reilly
Last 8: Matthews 5-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
2
Matthews
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Matthews
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (613)
60.3% (1,517)
-5.8%
Power Play
52.9% (68)
61.5% (387)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
71.4% (7)
55.0% (220)
+16.4%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Matthews is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (462).
Matthews shoots left. O'Reilly is 60.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,411).
Home / Away
Matthews
O'Reilly
Home
59.8% (351)
62.5% (1,143)
Away
49.0% (337)
57.1% (981)
By Period
Matthews
O'Reilly
P1
58.0%
56.8%
P2
49.6%
64.6%
P3
55.4%
58.5%
OT
83.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
56.4%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
54.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2018 | 2 | 17:24 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2018 | 2 | 17:10 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2018 | 2 | 10:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 2, 2018 | 2 | 06:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 2, 2018 | 1 | 15:39 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2018 | 1 | 03:10 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 1 | 11:01 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |