Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.2% vs 56.8%). Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 69.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 70.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 50.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Matthews
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Matthews
O'Reilly
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
0
Matthews
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Matthews
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
56.6% (1,064)
-0.3%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
60.4% (260)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
54.0% (261)
-4.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (755).
Matthews shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Matthews
O'Reilly
Home
60.7% (572)
54.9% (801)
Away
52.4% (657)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Matthews
O'Reilly
P1
60.3%
58.0%
P2
55.6%
56.7%
P3
53.3%
55.4%
OT
45.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
54.5%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2022 | 3 | 16:04 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 3 | 11:39 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 3 | 08:58 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 15:12 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 08:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 03:25 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 13:08 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 05:45 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 17:32 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 05:43 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 05:40 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |