Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 10-10 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 59.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 53.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 55.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Matthews
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
10
(20 meetings)
10
10
Matthews
O'Reilly
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
7
Matthews
O'Reilly
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
2
Matthews
O'Reilly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
55.4% (826)
+4.4%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
57.9% (221)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
50.4% (129)
+5.9%
On power play, Matthews has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Matthews
O'Reilly
Home
60.0% (520)
55.8% (579)
Away
59.3% (452)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Matthews
O'Reilly
P1
60.2%
57.7%
P2
58.2%
54.8%
P3
60.4%
54.3%
OT
70.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 08:33 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:56 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:43 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 16:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 12:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 18:49 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 17:44 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 14:33 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 08:49 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 04:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 00:52 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 15:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 12:17 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 12:12 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 08:42 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 04:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 01:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |