Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.4% vs 53.9%). Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 56.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 58.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 53.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.8%
48.2%
51.8%
Matthews
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
Matthews
O'Reilly
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
4
Matthews
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
2
Matthews
O'Reilly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
55.0% (1,084)
-1.6%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
56.8% (303)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
40.3% (149)
+1.6%
On power play, Matthews has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Matthews
O'Reilly
Home
56.5% (703)
54.8% (759)
Away
50.0% (616)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Matthews
O'Reilly
P1
52.1%
55.3%
P2
54.0%
51.9%
P3
54.0%
54.2%
OT
57.7%
64.7%
Final 5 min
54.6%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 12:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 12:18 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 07:43 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 2 | 11:17 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 2 | 06:56 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 07:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 02:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 12:46 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 07:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 04:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:24 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 16:27 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 01:04 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |