Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 69.1%
Defensive zone
Matthews 65.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 56.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Matthews
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
8
(15 meetings)
7
8
Matthews
O'Reilly
Last 10: Matthews 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
5
Matthews
O'Reilly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
56.2% (983)
+2.1%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
55.5% (254)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
52.0% (102)
-1.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Matthews
O'Reilly
Home
59.1% (528)
56.2% (697)
Away
55.1% (695)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Matthews
O'Reilly
P1
56.2%
54.5%
P2
58.1%
55.5%
P3
56.4%
57.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 13:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 05:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:09 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 12:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 09:15 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 06:02 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 03:12 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 08:23 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 03:07 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 00:04 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 19:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 02:42 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |