Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 60.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 76.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 51.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 55.9%
44.1%
55.9%
Matthews
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Matthews
O'Reilly
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Matthews
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
2
Matthews
O'Reilly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
56.1% (690)
-3.4%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
64.6% (96)
-30.0%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
45.9% (109)
+29.1%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +30.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Matthews is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Matthews shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Matthews
O'Reilly
Home
54.8% (515)
58.3% (408)
Away
50.2% (534)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Matthews
O'Reilly
P1
54.4%
57.7%
P2
50.4%
54.8%
P3
51.8%
55.2%
OT
75.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
53.7%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 19:13 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 18:46 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 12:28 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 09:45 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 09:38 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 07:22 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 05:13 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 19:03 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 03:08 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |