Auston Matthews vs Ryan O'Reilly
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 34 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 58-51 in 109 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 54.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 69.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 63.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 62.5%
37.5%
62.5%
Matthews
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
58
-
51
(109 meetings)
58
51
Matthews
O'Reilly
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
19
17
Matthews
O'Reilly
36 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
19
15
Matthews
O'Reilly
34 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
20
19
Matthews
O'Reilly
39 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
56.2% (15,260)
-2.2%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
58.8% (3,445)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
51.4% (2,811)
-1.6%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Matthews
O'Reilly
Home
56.3% (5,065)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Matthews
O'Reilly
P1
55.5%
55.6%
P2
53.3%
57.0%
P3
52.8%
55.1%
OT
56.6%
62.2%
Final 5 min
54.1%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 08:33 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:56 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:43 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 16:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 12:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 18:49 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 17:44 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 14:33 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 08:49 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 04:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 00:52 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 15:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 12:17 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 12:12 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 08:42 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 04:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 01:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |