Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +14.1% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 57.9% vs Gourde 45.6% (+14.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 56.0%
Defensive zone
Gourde 60.6%
Neutral zone
Gourde 60.5%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 60.5%
39.5%
60.5%
Matthews
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Matthews
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Matthews
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (715)
47.1% (463)
+11.5%
Power Play
65.7% (35)
36.4% (11)
+29.3%
Penalty Kill
57.7% (71)
29.9% (67)
+27.8%
On power play, Matthews has a +29.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Matthews is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (536).
Matthews shoots left. Gourde is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (346).
Home / Away
Matthews
Gourde
Home
60.0% (475)
42.3% (215)
Away
57.2% (346)
46.3% (326)
By Period
Matthews
Gourde
P1
58.3%
44.8%
P2
58.4%
49.1%
P3
59.4%
40.1%
OT
70.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
46.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
64.0%▲
60.5%
58.8%
Gourde
50.0%▲
43.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 03:43 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |