Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Gourde 48.0% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 75.9%
Defensive zone
Matthews 56.4%
Neutral zone
Matthews 64.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 65.5%
65.5%
34.5%
Matthews
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Matthews
Gourde
Last 7: Matthews 4-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
2
Matthews
Gourde
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
48.0% (914)
+5.4%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
54.2% (48)
+11.6%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
43.9% (123)
-2.0%
On power play, Matthews has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Gourde is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Matthews
Gourde
Home
56.5% (703)
50.2% (512)
Away
50.0% (616)
45.7% (573)
By Period
Matthews
Gourde
P1
52.1%
50.0%
P2
54.0%
45.3%
P3
54.0%
48.6%
OT
57.7%
20.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 17:58 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 17:49 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 14:48 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 14:36 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 14:22 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 03:37 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 09:41 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |