Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Gourde 49.5% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 94.3%
Defensive zone
Matthews 76.3%
Neutral zone
Matthews 82.9%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 85.0%
85.0%
15.0%
Matthews
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Matthews
Gourde
Last 10: Matthews 8-2 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
0
Matthews
Gourde
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
2
Matthews
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
1
Matthews
Gourde
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
49.1% (731)
+7.2%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
54.3% (81)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
48.2% (85)
+1.8%
On even strength, Matthews has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (755).
Matthews shoots left. Gourde is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (556).
Home / Away
Matthews
Gourde
Home
60.7% (572)
50.9% (479)
Away
52.4% (657)
47.8% (418)
By Period
Matthews
Gourde
P1
60.3%
51.2%
P2
55.6%
49.8%
P3
53.3%
47.5%
OT
45.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.5%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 14:10 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 06:01 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 3 | 13:46 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 3 | 10:02 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 3 | 06:52 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 2 | 05:46 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 2 | 00:15 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 1 | 10:36 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 1 | 01:06 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |