Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +14.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Gourde 46.0% (+14.2%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 97.2%
Defensive zone
Matthews 87.9%
Neutral zone
Matthews 94.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 92.9%
92.9%
7.1%
Matthews
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
5
(16 meetings)
11
5
Matthews
Gourde
Last 10: Matthews 7-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
Gourde
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
2
Matthews
Gourde
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
2
Matthews
Gourde
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
47.2% (654)
+12.6%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
45.0% (20)
+19.9%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
32.2% (87)
+24.1%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +24.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
Matthews
Gourde
Home
60.0% (520)
44.1% (322)
Away
59.3% (452)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Matthews
Gourde
P1
60.2%
42.4%
P2
58.2%
49.8%
P3
60.4%
44.3%
OT
70.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 10:02 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 15:43 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 12:30 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 11:55 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 11:49 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 11:37 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 08:33 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 03:20 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 13:32 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 08:24 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 05:11 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 02:26 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 03:43 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |