Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Gourde 49.7% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 83.3%
Defensive zone
Matthews 56.2%
Neutral zone
Matthews 69.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 69.6%
69.6%
30.4%
Matthews
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Matthews
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Matthews
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
49.1% (847)
+3.6%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
79.5% (44)
-44.9%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
39.5% (81)
+35.5%
On power play, Gourde has a +44.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Matthews is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Matthews shoots left. Gourde is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Home / Away
Matthews
Gourde
Home
54.8% (515)
50.1% (491)
Away
50.2% (534)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Matthews
Gourde
P1
54.4%
54.7%
P2
50.4%
45.0%
P3
51.8%
49.4%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 04:30 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 02:30 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 07:16 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 07:02 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |