Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Gourde 49.7% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 60.3%
Defensive zone
Gourde 62.3%
Neutral zone
Gourde 61.0%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Matthews
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Matthews
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Matthews
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
51.2% (469)
+7.1%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
42.9% (21)
+12.8%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
37.5% (48)
+13.2%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Gourde is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (358).
Home / Away
Matthews
Gourde
Home
59.1% (528)
47.8% (301)
Away
55.1% (695)
51.9% (237)
By Period
Matthews
Gourde
P1
56.2%
47.3%
P2
58.1%
53.4%
P3
56.4%
48.6%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.5%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
64.0%▲
60.5%
56.8%
Gourde
50.0%▲
43.5%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2 | 19:13 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2 | 08:03 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2 | 07:52 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |