Scouting Report
Barclay Goodrow holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Goodrow on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Goodrow wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Goodrow 53.5% vs Nelson 45.8% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 63.0%
Defensive zone
Goodrow 88.5%
Neutral zone
Goodrow 74.3%
Result
Barclay Goodrow favored at 77.8%
77.8%
22.2%
Goodrow
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Goodrow
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Goodrow
1
0
Goodrow
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Goodrow
2
1
Goodrow
Nelson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Goodrow
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (544)
46.1% (735)
+9.4%
Power Play
33.3% (6)
34.5% (29)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
44.6% (74)
30.4% (23)
+14.2%
On penalty kill, Goodrow has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Goodrow is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (395).
Goodrow shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Goodrow
Nelson
Home
57.2% (332)
48.7% (419)
Away
50.3% (292)
41.3% (368)
By Period
Goodrow
Nelson
P1
50.8%
44.6%
P2
59.5%
47.3%
P3
51.8%
43.0%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
39.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Goodrow
52.0%▲
39.5%
54.0%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 04:33 | Neutral | Barclay Goodrow |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 13:19 | Defensive | Barclay Goodrow |
| Feb 18, 2024 | 3 | 18:31 | Neutral | Barclay Goodrow |
| Feb 18, 2024 | 2 | 18:24 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |