Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 50.8%). Look for Hayton on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.0% vs Dowd 50.7% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 82.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.1%
Neutral zone
Hayton 50.6%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
Hayton
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Hayton
Dowd
Last 5: Hayton 3-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
1
Hayton
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Hayton
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (937)
55.2% (625)
-4.2%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
57.1% (7)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (129)
38.2% (220)
+6.8%
On penalty kill, Hayton has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Hayton is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (485).
Hayton shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
Hayton
Dowd
Home
54.6% (639)
53.7% (445)
Away
47.2% (591)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Hayton
Dowd
P1
50.9%
48.8%
P2
52.7%
49.3%
P3
49.9%
54.0%
OT
41.7%
44.4%
Final 5 min
51.6%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.1%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 19:53 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 07:14 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 03:55 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 00:48 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 13:53 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |