Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayton wins 57.7% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 53.8% vs Dowd 49.9% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 90.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 88.9%
Neutral zone
Hayton 52.2%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 67.6%
67.6%
32.4%
Hayton
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Hayton
Dowd
Last 5: Hayton 3-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Hayton
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (817)
52.2% (835)
+0.4%
Power Play
63.3% (139)
60.0% (10)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (64)
44.0% (350)
+9.1%
On penalty kill, Hayton has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Hayton is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Hayton shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Hayton
Dowd
Home
53.9% (516)
51.5% (619)
Away
54.4% (504)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Hayton
Dowd
P1
55.1%
51.7%
P2
55.0%
51.6%
P3
51.7%
47.0%
OT
69.2%
22.2%
Final 5 min
50.8%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
54.1%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2025 | 3 | 18:29 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 2 | 01:29 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:07 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:47 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 16:21 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |