Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.4% vs Dowd 49.1% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 77.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 55.7%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
Hayton
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Hayton
Dowd
Last 9: Hayton 3-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Hayton
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
4
Hayton
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (646)
51.7% (644)
+0.8%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
0.0% (2)
+56.8%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
41.6% (221)
-4.8%
On power play, Hayton has a +56.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Hayton is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (302).
Hayton shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Hayton
Dowd
Home
56.9% (432)
48.6% (451)
Away
47.4% (344)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Hayton
Dowd
P1
53.1%
49.1%
P2
50.3%
47.3%
P3
55.4%
51.4%
OT
25.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 15:17 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 13:44 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 02:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 19:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 19:27 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 12:29 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |