Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.2% vs 50.7%). Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.1% vs Dowd 50.7% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 13-10 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayton 66.5%
Defensive zone
Hayton 53.7%
Neutral zone
Hayton 50.0%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Hayton
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
13
(23 meetings)
10
13
Hayton
Dowd
Last 10: Hayton 3-7 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
5
1
Hayton
Dowd
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
4
Hayton
Dowd
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
8
Hayton
Dowd
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (3,479)
52.4% (6,009)
-1.6%
Power Play
56.7% (594)
56.1% (164)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (374)
44.1% (1,635)
+1.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Hayton is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,648).
Hayton shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Hayton
Dowd
Home
52.9% (2,268)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
49.4% (2,179)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Hayton
Dowd
P1
52.0%
51.7%
P2
51.4%
50.4%
P3
49.9%
50.3%
OT
58.1%
45.9%
Final 5 min
51.6%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 15:17 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 13:44 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 02:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 19:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 19:27 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 12:29 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 3 | 18:29 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 2 | 01:29 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:07 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:47 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 16:21 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 19:53 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 07:14 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 03:55 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 00:48 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 13:53 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Apr 22, 2022 | 3 | 19:11 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |