Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lizotte wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 51.3% vs Sturm 52.5% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lizotte 78.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 56.3%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 56.9%
Result
Blake Lizotte favored at 69.0%
69.0%
31.0%
Lizotte
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Lizotte
Sturm
Last 7: Lizotte 2-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Lizotte
Sturm
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Lizotte
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (534)
54.0% (480)
-2.7%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
28.6% (7)
+32.5%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (55)
50.0% (102)
+0.9%
On power play, Lizotte has a +32.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Lizotte is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Lizotte shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Sturm
Home
52.5% (326)
54.0% (287)
Away
50.5% (281)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Lizotte
Sturm
P1
51.4%
53.5%
P2
56.3%
51.0%
P3
46.1%
55.1%
Final 5 min
49.2%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
51.6%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2022 | 3 | 06:45 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Apr 13, 2022 | 3 | 01:38 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Apr 13, 2022 | 3 | 01:18 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 13, 2022 | 2 | 13:05 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 13, 2022 | 2 | 01:43 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 13, 2022 | 1 | 14:40 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 02:18 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |