Scouting Report
Blake Lizotte holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Lafferty on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lizotte wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 47.5% vs Lafferty 43.9% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lafferty 59.8%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 57.7%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 58.4%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 58.7%
41.3%
58.7%
Lizotte
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Lizotte
Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Lizotte
Lafferty
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
1
2
Lizotte
Lafferty
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (313)
42.6% (324)
+5.3%
Power Play
33.3% (6)
31.3% (16)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (46)
43.8% (16)
-2.5%
On even strength, Lizotte has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Lizotte is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (112).
Lizotte shoots left. Lafferty is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (268).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Lafferty
Home
48.8% (170)
40.9% (181)
Away
45.1% (195)
43.4% (175)
By Period
Lizotte
Lafferty
P1
44.4%
42.2%
P2
53.3%
36.4%
P3
43.0%
48.6%
Final 5 min
43.0%
37.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
46.8%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
42.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 19:04 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 25, 2024 | 1 | 12:50 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Mar 25, 2024 | 1 | 07:01 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 19:53 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |