Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Horvat wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 56.5% vs Nelson 47.5% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horvat 70.3%
Defensive zone
Horvat 87.8%
Neutral zone
Horvat 68.5%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 75.5%
75.5%
24.5%
Horvat
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Horvat
Nelson
Last 9: Horvat 7-2 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
2
1
Horvat
Nelson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
3
0
Horvat
Nelson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horvat
2
1
Horvat
Nelson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
54.7% (1,126)
46.9% (915)
+7.8%
Power Play
67.0% (342)
57.4% (94)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (217)
25.0% (28)
+27.1%
On penalty kill, Horvat has a +27.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Horvat is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,111).
Horvat shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Horvat
Nelson
Home
59.8% (853)
48.9% (521)
Away
53.8% (832)
45.5% (516)
By Period
Horvat
Nelson
P1
55.0%
45.9%
P2
58.3%
48.0%
P3
57.8%
48.0%
OT
44.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
59.4%
45.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
56.9%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 14:03 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 08:32 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 16:28 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 11:14 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 08:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 18:08 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 14:36 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 11:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 11:30 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |