Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Horvat wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 55.4% vs Nelson 50.6% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Horvat leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Horvat 75.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 53.0%
Neutral zone
Horvat 67.5%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 67.4%
67.4%
32.6%
Horvat
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
4
(13 meetings)
9
4
Horvat
Nelson
Last 10: Horvat 7-3 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
5
0
Horvat
Nelson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Horvat
Nelson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Horvat
Nelson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (682)
50.7% (879)
+4.6%
Power Play
62.2% (230)
58.6% (162)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (101)
43.4% (198)
+3.1%
On even strength, Horvat has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Horvat is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (600).
Horvat shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Home / Away
Horvat
Nelson
Home
58.2% (469)
52.3% (621)
Away
54.0% (544)
48.9% (618)
By Period
Horvat
Nelson
P1
59.6%
48.4%
P2
53.1%
53.5%
P3
55.5%
50.3%
OT
55.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
59.6%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
56.0%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 12:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:42 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:16 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:34 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:07 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 08:14 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:51 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:40 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 02:17 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 02:05 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 02:00 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |