Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 30 meetings). Horvat wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs Nelson 48.3% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Horvat leads 50-37 in 87 meetings
Offensive zone
Horvat 79.6%
Defensive zone
Horvat 83.5%
Neutral zone
Horvat 77.6%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 80.4%
80.4%
19.6%
Horvat
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
50
-
37
(87 meetings)
50
37
Horvat
Nelson
Last 10: Horvat 7-3 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
14
10
Horvat
Nelson
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
18
15
Horvat
Nelson
33 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horvat
18
12
Horvat
Nelson
30 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,606)
47.9% (9,695)
+6.0%
Power Play
61.0% (2,699)
54.5% (1,132)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,494)
43.8% (783)
+3.3%
On power play, Horvat has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Horvat is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (10,714).
Horvat shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Home / Away
Horvat
Nelson
Home
56.0% (8,355)
50.0% (5,845)
Away
52.9% (8,445)
46.5% (5,766)
By Period
Horvat
Nelson
P1
54.1%
48.7%
P2
54.4%
48.5%
P3
55.0%
47.7%
OT
49.6%
45.6%
Final 5 min
55.2%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
54.4%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 12:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:42 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:16 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:34 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:07 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 08:14 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:51 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:40 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 02:17 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 02:05 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 02:00 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 14:03 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 08:32 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 16:28 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 11:14 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 08:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 18:08 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 14:36 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |